Obama supporters are delirious about yesterday's SC win, and to be honest I share some of their enthusiasm. If this time next year we are inaugurating President Barack Obama, I will be as deliriously happy as any Obama supporter is today.
But I'm not there yet, and we all need to keep our eyes on the NOVEMBER prize. Below are several numbers meant to sober you up on the morning after ...
In the 2004 general election in South Carolina (from CNN):
Bush: 947, 974 Kerry: 661,699 Nader: 5,520
Even though 2004 wasn't much of a contest (they had an incumbent), the Republicans were able to mobilize 950,000 votes in South Carolina!
Yesterday Obama got 295,000 in the primary. Add to that Hillary's 141,000 and Edwards' 93,000, and you get a grand total of, ta-da!,
529,000 votes!
So assuming that ALL Democrats vote for Obama (which based on postings here and elsewhere, is not the case), where are the extra 430,000 votes to carry SC in the general going to come from?
The Democratic base -- especially Obama supporters -- were highly energize by this primary. Folks, it ain't gonna happen in South Carolina in November. Can Obama attract 430,000 cross-over Republicans? I don't think so.
So ... what does South Carolina tell us about "President" Obama? Most likely, nothing. But if it tells us anything, it's not something that makes ME deliriously happy.
