Barack Obama's wins in the red states of the West in yesterday's primaries put him in a difficult position. His campaign may be tempted to trumpet this -- as some supporters here on dkos already have -- as proof that he can take red states in November. But I see storm clouds for him on that particular horizon. And those clouds are all about Iraq.
By claiming to have been "right on day 1" about Iraq as failed imperial adventurism, Obama has painted himself into a corner that could prove to be a prison in any general election contest, but particularly in the red state West.
I predict that starting today, we will begin to see Obama soft-pedaling the whole Iraq issue. Why? His campaign advisors surely know that the West, as a demographic, are staunch supporters of the NRA and the second amendment. Not only do they have a cowboy history that is not just stereotype, but they continue to live in relatively far-flung rural communities where not only do the deer and the antelope play, but the coyote and wolf prey on the sheep and the lamb. They believe in showing a strong face to the world, and not backing down from a fight.
So, comes November and John McCain has this husky plaid-shirt maniliness and a kick-ass war record. And all he has to say is "this baby boy from Chi-caaa-go said we were wrong to fight that evil Saddam Hussein. Were we wrong?" "NO!" comes the enthusiastic response.
You see where I'm going. So Obama can stand up for himself, say "Yes John, but I was right on day 1, you know" and face the consequences. Or he can start to weasel and squirm his way out of it. In which case he falls by EXACTLY the same sword that John Kerry (who WAS a war hero, BTW) fell by in 2004: the dreaded flip-flop charge. Obama is on tape gloating over Hillary in the primary debates. If he is serious about a red state win, I advise him to start destroying those tapes and change his Iraq story now. Of course, that makes it harder to win the primary. So, hm, the proverbial painter's corner.
It's clear that Hillary's moderate stance on Iraq is what you need to win a general election for President in this country. I know the word "moderation" to some Obama supporters is like a red flag to a bull, but it has served us well in over 200 years of government based on rational discourse.